Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Mets Fans Rejoice

Johan Santana is now a Met. Now all the Mets need to do is show Johan the money, probably 6 or 7 years at $140 to $160 million.
What's great about this deal is that they did not give up Fernando Martinez who will probably be a starting outfielder in 2009 and could be called into duty this year when Alou gets hurt and when Ryan Church sucks.
Carlos Gomez is a good prospect, Mulvey and Humber are mid-level pitching prospects and Deolis Guerra is the jewel of this deal, but he's several years away.
Before we get too excited about this trade we must remember that this does not guarantee the Mets will win or even make it to the World Series, this year, or at any point during Santana's tenure with the team.
But right now the Mets have the best team in the National League, and they should have Santana, Maine and Perez winning 15 games a year for at least 5 more seasons.
This is a great day for the Mets, I can't wait to see how it plays out.

He's going to look great in orange and blue

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Wednesday, January 16, 2008

To Trade Or Not To Trade?

Although the current trade rumor of the Minnesota Twins asking for Fernando Martinez, Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra is probably not true, let's discuss it anyway.
I have said many times before that the Mets should aggressively pursue Santana because he would push this team over the top from good, to possible World Series Champion.
And although your 5 best prospects is a hefty price to pay, if you could guarantee a World Series victory I would do it right now.
I'm not overly concerned that some of these prospects would become stars, because Santana already is a star, my worry is that depleting the farm system in this way would damage the organization for years to come.
First of all, without Gomez or Martinez that means Endy Chavez in left field for 50 games this season while Alou is hurt.
And for 2009, the Mets will probably need to replace Alou and maybe even Church (if he's as unproductive as I think he will be) and without Martinez or Gomez in the pipeline that will force the Mets to bring in two high-priced outfielders.
And if Pedro and El Duque retire or break down replacements for them (this season and beyond) will also be expensive.
So my evaluation of the trade is this: if it works out this season, great, but if it doesn't it would force the Mets into several (probably overpriced) free agents, a road the Mets have gone down before, unsuccessfully.
I think the team's longterm future would be better protected by trading Reyes for Santana because you'd still have your top prospects around for the future.
This does represent a slight change in my philosophy, but not because I've changed my stance on Santana but because I think Gomez and Martinez can't be included in the same deal, especially not with the top 3 pitching prospects in the organization.

Deolis Guerra, we hardly knew ye