Mets Sign K-Rod

The Mets addressed their biggest weakness by signing closer Francisco Rodriguez aka K-Rod for 3 years and 37 million dollars.
It's a great move, but a pretty obvious one. With the Mets bullpen in complete shambles (even with a healthy Billy Wagner), they needed a closer desperately now that Wagner will likely miss the entire year.
The Mets filled their biggest need, with the best available option and did so relatively cheaply. For instance, three years ago the Mets spent $6 million more (albeit for one more year) on Billy Wagner. So they gave an extra year to a closer who was 8 years older then than K-Rod is now. Obviously the market for top closers isn't as big as K-Rod thought.
But there are some worries that come along with this signing.
While his stats are incredible, some of his underlying numbers are cause for concern.
His hits are on the rise, while his strikeouts are falling. He also blew 7 saves last year, which means he failed about 10% of the time.
Will Mets fans tolerate that rate?
Some are also concerned about his durability because his velocity was down last year and he is getting older (he'll be 27 on Opening Day) leading to worries he could be exiting an early prime.
Also he has never been a 2-inning pitcher and likely won't be with the Mets.
Despite those worries this was a great move for the Mets, a crucial first step toward building a team that won't implode (from the bullpen out) next September.

Mets Fans Rejoice

Johan Santana is now a Met. Now all the Mets need to do is show Johan the money, probably 6 or 7 years at $140 to $160 million.
What's great about this deal is that they did not give up Fernando Martinez who will probably be a starting outfielder in 2009 and could be called into duty this year when Alou gets hurt and when Ryan Church sucks.
Carlos Gomez is a good prospect, Mulvey and Humber are mid-level pitching prospects and Deolis Guerra is the jewel of this deal, but he's several years away.
Before we get too excited about this trade we must remember that this does not guarantee the Mets will win or even make it to the World Series, this year, or at any point during Santana's tenure with the team.
But right now the Mets have the best team in the National League, and they should have Santana, Maine and Perez winning 15 games a year for at least 5 more seasons.
This is a great day for the Mets, I can't wait to see how it plays out.

To Trade Or Not To Trade?

Although the current trade rumor of the Minnesota Twins asking for Fernando Martinez, Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra is probably not true, let's discuss it anyway.
I have said many times before that the Mets should aggressively pursue Santana because he would push this team over the top from good, to possible World Series Champion.
And although your 5 best prospects is a hefty price to pay, if you could guarantee a World Series victory I would do it right now.
I'm not overly concerned that some of these prospects would become stars, because Santana already is a star, my worry is that depleting the farm system in this way would damage the organization for years to come.
First of all, without Gomez or Martinez that means Endy Chavez in left field for 50 games this season while Alou is hurt.
And for 2009, the Mets will probably need to replace Alou and maybe even Church (if he's as unproductive as I think he will be) and without Martinez or Gomez in the pipeline that will force the Mets to bring in two high-priced outfielders.
And if Pedro and El Duque retire or break down replacements for them (this season and beyond) will also be expensive.
So my evaluation of the trade is this: if it works out this season, great, but if it doesn't it would force the Mets into several (probably overpriced) free agents, a road the Mets have gone down before, unsuccessfully.
I think the team's longterm future would be better protected by trading Reyes for Santana because you'd still have your top prospects around for the future.
This does represent a slight change in my philosophy, but not because I've changed my stance on Santana but because I think Gomez and Martinez can't be included in the same deal, especially not with the top 3 pitching prospects in the organization.

The Mets Should Get Santana

Johan Santana is on the trading block and the Mets should do almost anything it takes to get him.
I am almost always opposed to trading talented prospects for high-priced veterans but Santana is a special case.
He is the best pitcher in baseball. And he's only 29. And some team is going to trade for him this year so waiting for him to hit free agency is not an option.
The Mets are reportedly ready to offer a deal centered around Carlos Gomez. The Mets would have to give up one of their top two pitching prospects, Pelfrey or Humber, but they can't afford to give up both because then they'd have no Pedro/El Duque injury insurance.
The Mets would probably have to offer two more prospects in the deal, though I can't imagine who, Kevin Mulvey, Mike Carp, Anderson Hernandez?



Other options for the Mets include Dan Haren, Joe Blanton and Dontrelle Willis. Blanton and Willis have been two of my favorites for a couple years now, but I would rather give up Gomez and 3 others for Santana than just Gomez for one of those three.
The reason being, in a short playoff series Santana provides a huge advantage because he's better than anyone the other team has. That pushes everyone else down, making Pedro (when healthy), Maine and Perez, the 2, 3 and 4 starters, much better and deeper than what almost any other team would have.
I know the danger of trading prospects, but we are not talking about Viktor Zambrano here. We are talking about the best pitcher in baseball.

The Mets Don't Learn

It seems that the Mets are content to spend this offseason acquiring mediocre old players instead of getting better or younger.
First the Mets resigned Moises Alou for $9 million, hoping he can play 100 games.
Then they gave $25 million to Luis Castillo who can't hit and can't run, and made big errors last year when his defense was supposed to help steady the sinking ship.
When they failed to get mediocre offensive catcher Yorvit Torrealba, the Mets instead traded for mediocre catcher Johnny Estrada.
While none of these are terrible moves (especially because we got rid of Mota), together they give me the impression that the Mets are not going to be better next year than they were this year.
And they are going to continue with their maddening refusal to give a young player a chance to play.
If the next move is signing Carlos Silva to fill up the back end of the rotation with a 14-14 record and a 5.00 ERA, I'm going to be furious.