Monday, February 11, 2008

Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc translated literally means "after this, therefore because of this."
Usually this manner of thinking is fallacious but in this case and one previous case, an argument can be made.
It is quite possible that the Mets would never have gone after Santana so tirelessly had they not blown that huge lead last season. It's also likely that they would have made an equally dogged pursuit had they made the playoffs and gotten swept like the Phillies.
But an even more specious argument is made to link the Scott Kazmir for Viktor Zambrano debacle to the acquisitions of Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran. That trade definitely led to the hiring of Omar Minaya who reportedly used his Hispanic heritage to lure Pedro, and then Omar reportedly used his acquisition of Pedro to lure Beltran. Personally, I think he used the Wilpon's checkbook to offer both those guys more money and years than any other team was willing to give.
But for the purposes of this question, I'll accept the correlation and causation in both of these circumstances.



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