Monday, February 11, 2008

Looking at Both Sides of the Santana Trade

Why the trade is great:
Johan Santana is the best pitcher in baseball
The Mets gave up no major league contributors to get him
He is a flyball pitcher coming to one of the biggest parks in the National League
He is coming to the National League where instead of a DH he'll get to face a pitcher
The Mets needed an ace starter

Why the trade might not work out:
If the Mets don't win a World Series with Santana the trade is a failure
Long-term big money deals, especially for pitchers, historically have not worked out (Manny Ramirez is the only guy to sign a more than $100 million contract and win a World Series with that team after signing the contract)
The Mets gave him a 6 year contract starting in 2009 worth about $23 million per year, the production in 2012, 2013, 2014 when Santana is 33 to 35 probably will not be worth that money
Santana's 2007 statistics were a big dropoff from his previous years, perhaps indicating he is ready for a permanent career decline
The Mets still have to play 130 games without him, it's a still a team sport and his overall impact is limited

I'm sure Rick Peterson thinks he can turn Johan Santana into a top pitcher



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