Wednesday, February 20, 2008

I Was Right, Santana Looks Great in Orange and Blue

The excitement over the Johan Santana trade landing the Mets new star pitcher on the cover of Sports Illustrated. Read the article here.


Friday, February 15, 2008

Pitchers and Catchers Report

Mets star pitchers Johan Santana and Pedro Martinez work out on the first day of spring training. Rick Peterson instructs Santana without his jacket.

Santana on the mound
Stay away from him Rick
Pedro, laughing as usual

Monday, February 11, 2008

Looking at Both Sides of the Santana Trade

Why the trade is great:
Johan Santana is the best pitcher in baseball
The Mets gave up no major league contributors to get him
He is a flyball pitcher coming to one of the biggest parks in the National League
He is coming to the National League where instead of a DH he'll get to face a pitcher
The Mets needed an ace starter

Why the trade might not work out:
If the Mets don't win a World Series with Santana the trade is a failure
Long-term big money deals, especially for pitchers, historically have not worked out (Manny Ramirez is the only guy to sign a more than $100 million contract and win a World Series with that team after signing the contract)
The Mets gave him a 6 year contract starting in 2009 worth about $23 million per year, the production in 2012, 2013, 2014 when Santana is 33 to 35 probably will not be worth that money
Santana's 2007 statistics were a big dropoff from his previous years, perhaps indicating he is ready for a permanent career decline
The Mets still have to play 130 games without him, it's a still a team sport and his overall impact is limited

I'm sure Rick Peterson thinks he can turn Johan Santana into a top pitcher


Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc translated literally means "after this, therefore because of this."
Usually this manner of thinking is fallacious but in this case and one previous case, an argument can be made.
It is quite possible that the Mets would never have gone after Santana so tirelessly had they not blown that huge lead last season. It's also likely that they would have made an equally dogged pursuit had they made the playoffs and gotten swept like the Phillies.
But an even more specious argument is made to link the Scott Kazmir for Viktor Zambrano debacle to the acquisitions of Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran. That trade definitely led to the hiring of Omar Minaya who reportedly used his Hispanic heritage to lure Pedro, and then Omar reportedly used his acquisition of Pedro to lure Beltran. Personally, I think he used the Wilpon's checkbook to offer both those guys more money and years than any other team was willing to give.
But for the purposes of this question, I'll accept the correlation and causation in both of these circumstances.