Finally Fired

The Mets finally fired Willie Randolph. And along with him they got rid of Rick Peterson and Tom Nieto.
Jerry Manuel will serve as interim manager and Ken Oberkfell, Dan Warthen and Luis Aguayo were named as new coaches.
Oberkfell was the manager of New Orleans, the Mets Triple A affiliate. He'll be the new bench coach. Warthen was the pitching coach for New Orleans, he'll replace Peterson.

Ok, so now that that's out of the way, here are my thoughts:
First of all, Willie was not being evaluated on a day to day basis so the fact that the Mets won the last two games, and three of four has nothing to do with it. It makes the timing a little weird is all. But he was fired because of a huge collapse, followed by half a season of mediocrity. Does anyone think the Mets suddenly turned it around in the last few games? No, they just happened to win a few, because they're a .500 team, not a .000 team.

The best time to make the move would have been last Monday, on an off-day, after a devastating sweep. I have no idea why they waited. Maybe a different manager could have squeezed out an extra victory on the homestand with better bullpen management, but I doubt it.

I really have almost no hopes that these changes will lead to a sudden and drastic turnaround. The problems with this team are on the field, the players are the ones who have to improve.

That makes Willie an unfortunate fall guy, hut I'm glad he's gone.

I'm glad Willie is gone because he's so stubborn and refuses to make any major changes that might help the team. "Keep battling" is not a plan for improvement, it's the definition of insanity.

I also think he is a bad strategical manager, especially when it comes to using the bullpen. He is also not aggressive enough with base runners, and too often plays for one run with the sacrifice bunt at inopportune times.

To repeat, I'm glad they made this move, I think it's unlikely to start a drastic turnaround but it had to be done because there were no other ways available to make a major change to this team.

Lose the Jacket

All the talk around the Mets centers on firing Willie Randolph but I think the Mets would be more likely to improve if they fired Rick Peterson, and I know the perfect replacement.
But before we get to that, let's look at Peterson. He's done great work with John Maine, yes.
But he has not been able to reach Oliver Perez, whose troubles are 90% mental, and that's supposed to be Peterson's strength.
I don't know how much Johan Santana would listen to any pitching coach but Peterson certainly isn't helping him.

I think the Mets should hire Leo Mazzone. In an AP article, Mazzone said, "What I'm doing is sitting here dying to get back into baseball again."

With the great staffs he built in Atlanta, I don't see why the Mets wouldn't want to go after him and see if he has answer to help the Mets pitchers get deeper in games.

Would You Do It?

Here's a wild idea for the Mets this offseason. It sounds crazy but it's actually plausible.

Trade Jose Reyes and Mike Pelfrey to the Twins for Johan Santana.
Sign Johan Santana for 6 years $150 million and sign Alex Rodriguez for 10 years $300 million.

You add roughly $55 million per year to the payroll, but if you get rid of Green ($9.5m in 2007), Alou ($7.5m), Glavine ($7.5m), Castillo ($5.75m) and LoDuca ($6.2m), plus Reyes ($2.5m in 2007, $4m in 2008), that's a savings of about $40 million. And you wouldn't need to spend much to replace those guys because you have Milledge, Gomez, Santana, A-Rod, Gotay and Castro (who could be resigned for about $2 million per) to fill those spots.

Also, when Delgado ($16m in 2008), Pedro ($11m in 2008) and El Duque ($6.5m) go after next year there would be money left over.

This would give you a line up of Gomez, Milledge, Beltran, A-Rod, Wright, Delgado, Castro and Gotay. The rotation would be Santana, Pedro, El Duque, Perez and Maine. That seems like a good team to me.

When answering this question please go by only the information contained herein not other eventualities such as if Humber were in the deal instead of Pelfrey or if the Mets could still keep Alou.

Also I know that the cost of the contracts of Green and Castillo were defrayed by other teams but I tried to keep it simple.



My answer is no, for a simple reason. Alex Rodriguez is not a winning player. Something about him is contrary to winning on every team he's played for. I wouldn't want to take the chance that his selfishness and lack of clutch hitting torpedoes what I still believe is a bright future for the next 10 years.

I Don't Want To Hear It

Two aspects of the Mets collapse that are absolutely ridiculous, and therefore getting a lot of play in the stupid media:

1) That the Mets somehow fired up the Marlins by showboating and celebrating on Saturday. And that Reyes provoking Olivo into a fight gave the Marlins extra motivation, without which they would have quit on Sunday. That's complete bullshit. Teams don't quit. Did the Marlins quit on Friday? Why didn't the Marlins get fired up in the second half of Saturday's game? Was Dontrelle Willis fired up when he lasted only 2 2/3 innings? Did the Marlins stop being fired up when they scored only 1 run in the last 8 innings? Did they say, ok that's enough? Complete bullshit, none of that had anything to do with the game. The Mets lost because they didn't get it done, not because they gave the Marlins motivation. A few more questions. Were the Marlins motivated all season when they lost 91 games? Even if the Marlins were motivated, shouldn't the Mets have been more motivated? And even if both teams were equally fired up, shouldn't the Mets have been able to beat them anyway? Nonsense.

2) The Mets fans contributed to the team's poor play at home particularly on the last homestand. I am critical of stupid Mets fans who boo constantly and make Shea unfriendly to home ballplayers but to blame the fans for this is ridiculous. Mets fans took every opportunity to go nuts for this team, and every time the Mets blew it. If the fans had cheered louder Tom Glavine wouldn't have given up 7 runs in the first inning? Bullshit. The team sucked, and that's why they lost.

Wait Til Next Year

There's nothing left for Mets fans to do except turn our attention to next year. As bad as this season was, the Mets did win 88 games and only minor improvements need to be made to get this team to 92 wins next season.

As mad as I am I hope the Mets don't make too many drastic moves because this collapse was a fluke more than anything else, the confluence of hundreds of extraordinary, minor occurrences, that added up to a disastrous meltdown. The odds of that happening again are small, so the Mets shouldn't worry about how to fix the problems of the last 17 games too much, they need to make the team better overall.

I'll give a brief blurb on almost everyone on the Mets, their role in this collapse and what should happen to them next season:

Omar Minaya: He's a good general manager, a little stubborn, a little too reliant on veterans and guys he knows. He needs to cut ties with some veterans and acquire some pitching without trading any of our top young players.

Willie Randolph: He's a bad manager. His in-game moves are for the most part awful, and obviously he's not the right guy to fire this team up. His calm demeanor did not work down the stretch, and he spent two weeks fiddling while Rome burned. I am now officially against him and I wish they'd fire him.



Jose Reyes: I love him. He's my favorite player and still the best player on the Mets, but he was horrible down the stretch. I don't know what was wrong with him and I'm confident it won't carry over to next year but he is the guy that makes this team go, and he did nothing the last two weeks of the season. Other than the atrocious bullpen, Reyes's horrid play was the second most important reason for this collapse.

Luis Castillo: They should let him go. He's an average offensive player at best. He made two huge errors that cost the Mets in September. They can do a lot better (or just as good) for a lot cheaper.

David Wright: He was awesome this season, particularly late in the year. Other than his huge mistake on the potential double play in Pedro's start on Friday, he's almost blameless in this disaster.

Carlos Beltran: I don't know why Mets fans hate him so much. He's a great player and produces on a level equal to Wright. He had some bad moments this season but he played great almost all year. I feel he will never be accepted by the Mets fans but he is a special player.

Moises Alou: Had a great season, and was absolutely on fire in September. But he should go. The Mets don't need another 40-something player. Especially one who probably is only going to play 100 games.

Carlos Delgado: The Mets have him signed for one more year at $16 million and they'll owe him $4 million if they don't sign him in 2009. Acquiring him was a terrible mistake. Compared to other first basemen he's one of the worst in the majors. He did come up with some big hits early in the season but he's basically just a home run hitter. He hits .260, plays bad defense and doesn't hustle.

Paul LoDuca: Will not be back and should not be back. I don't mind Paul, I like his hustle and his attitude, the problem is, he just isn't very good. Even by the lowered standards of catchers, LoDuca was one of the least productive full-time catchers in the majors this year.

Shawn Green: It was a terrible decision to bring him here and it didn't really work out. He's just not that good anymore. 46 RBI is 446 at bats? That's an awful percentage for a guy in an RBI position in a relatively potent lineup. 76 outfielders had more, meaning he was in the bottom 17% of major league outfielders. Does that sound like a guy worth bringing back for another year?

Lastings Milledge: I fear he is going to be traded because of all these minor attitude things. I think he is going to be a great player and I really want him to be the every day right fielder next year. He can hit for power, run, throw and all he needs is a chance. He should be our 6th place hitter next year on opening day.

Carlos Gomez: Has a lot of talent, but may not be ready quite yet. Even so I hope they give him the permanent left field job next year and let him bat second between Reyes and Wright. That would help his development. The Mets always bury their young players at the bottom of the lineup and wonder why they don't produce. Putting a young guy in a key spot would give him more opportunities to succeed and speed his development.

Ramon Castro: His great performances in spot duty as the Mets backup catcher for three years warrant giving him a chance to be the regular catcher next season. No one the Mets will get in free agency will be that much better than Castro, but they will cost several million more. He's a much better hitter than LoDuca right now and other than this year, much better at throwing out baserunners as well.

Ruben Gotay: I'm not sure that he plays good enough defense to be an everyday second baseman but he definitely hits well enough to bat 8th in my lineup, if Anderson Hernandez is not ready to contribute enough offensively on the major league level.

Marlon Anderson: I would love to bring him back as a pinch hitter. But Anderson did lose his head twice and hurt the team. His blatant takeout slide may have cost the Mets a game against the Phillies, one that might have been the difference between this result, and the playoffs. Then, he missed two key games while serving a suspension for flipping out on an umpire.

Endy Chavez: He is a great fourth outfielder. With my plan to start Gomez and Milledge, Chavez will be much needed insurance.

Oliver Perez: Despite his horrible start on Friday he had a breakthrough season. A lot of his problems were mental as he gave up runs when he walked a couple guys or when the defense made bad plays behind him. He is still a young pitcher and any improvement (particularly making his bad starts a little less bad), will make him a legitimate number one starter.

John Maine: He can be a great number 2 to Oliver Perez. He had a great first half then faded before Saturday's brilliant performance. I have a lot of faith that the problems he faced in the second half can be fixed, now that he has more experience.

Pedro Martinez: I love Pedro, he's just too old and too injured to be relied upon. If he can pitch a full season he will give the Mets the best top 3 in the National League. But at this point in his career it would be unreasonable to expect 35 starts out of him. Unfortunately, giving an injured guy $52 million has backfired because for the past two seasons, the Mets were so close, and Pedro just wasn't around to nudge them over the edge.

El Duque: I love his toughness but he's also too old to contribute. I don't want to pencil him in then have him die on us late in the season for the 3rd straight year. The Mets should let him go.

Mike Pelfrey: He was horrible in April but showed a lot of improvement. He also has to learn to pitch out of trouble and to conserve pitches a little bit so he can go deeper into games. I still have confidence in his talent and want him to be the 4th or 5th starter next year.

Philip Humber: He's getting older and his time is coming. I'd love to see him win the 5th spot in spring training.

Jorge Sosa: Hopefully the Mets can keep him as a reliever and insurance in case of injury to or bad performance by a starting pitcher. Perhaps with a full year in relief he can get better adjusted to the rigors of that role.

Pedro Feliciano: Despite his troubles he's still the best reliever the Mets have.

Billy Wagner: He's our closer. He's not great, but he's better than most.

Aaron Heilman: I don't like his attitude and the fact that his mistakes seem to result in losses.

Scott Schoeneweis: He was horrible for most of this year but was the one reliever who improved down the stretch. They have to keep him anyway since he's got two more years on his contract and I think he might have a bounceback year next year, especially if the rest of the bullpen improves and he can be used more situationally.

Guillermo Mota: He has a year left on his contract. Terrible signing. I hope they cut him loose. He sucks.

Duaner Sanchez: Come back, please. We need you. Be as good as you were before the car accident. Please!

Joe Smith: Not sure he has any real potential. His hot start may have been a fluke. He wasn't fooling anyone in his second stint with the team late in the season.

A Change in Strategy?

It seems like the Mets began this road trip with a new philosophy in several different areas. Maybe the Mets coaches Met on the off-day Monday and discussed the following changes:

1) Batting Wright 3rd, Beltran 4th and Delgado 5th.
This makes a lot of sense because Wright is hitting for a higher average and reaching base more often than Beltran. And although we think of Beltran as faster, Wright has more steals and a better percentage this season.

2) Using Sosa in pressure situations.
Looks like Jorge Sosa is in the bullpen to stay, and he's going to get more chances in close games (this happened before this series as well). The Mets need someone to step up and Sosa has been doing a pretty good job. If he can keep going well, then the Mets can take a bullpen of El Duque, Sosa, Heilman, Feliciano and Wagner into the postseason, and feel pretty confident.

3) Lastings Milledge gets more playing time.
Lastings Milledge got a start over Shawn Green against a righty in the first game of the Pirates series. This has to happen more often. At this point in their careers Milledge does everything better than Green. He's faster, he plays better defense, he hits for more power and average and his aggressive base running produces runs. Green should be a lefty pinch hitter off the bench for the rest of the season.

4) Late inning defensive replacements.
When Shawn Green and Moises Alou are in the game the Mets are very weak at the corners. I look for Willie to replace them in the late innings of almost every game down the stretch with Milledge and Chavez (when he comes back). It will also be interesting to see if Willie continues to pull Delgado (he replaced him with Green).

Trouble, Man

The Mets are not hitting right now. The Mets starting pitchers have allowed 3 runs or fewer in the last 13 games. The Mets are 7-6 in those games, mainly because the team has struggled to score runs.

There have been a lot of injuries, and the Mets have really missed Green and Alou who were hot at the beginning of the year.

Also everyone seems to have gone cold at the same time, Beltran had been in a long homerless drought, and Delgado and Wright both broke out, then went right back into their slumbers. Also, I think it is time for LoDuca to be moved back to the number 2 hole. He has been the Mets best hitter, and even though they don't have any better options to protect Wright, I think Reyes is the most important player on the team, and putting him in front of a slumping Endy, or whoever they can find now (Gotay, Gomez, Easley), will slow him down even more.

The other big issue facing the Mets is the imbalance of the interleague schedule. In the next five series the Mets will face four teams that are .500 or better (Detroit, LA, Minnesota and Oakland) plus the Yankees who may have things turned around by then. It will be very tough for this team to compete with AL teams with this depleted offense. If Green and Alou don't come back and starting hitting I predict the Mets will be 8-13 in June by the time the Cardinals come to town on June 25.

What Should the Mets Do?

The Mets have 3 big issues right now. What should they do about them?

1) The lineup
David Wright was not hitting at all, and one game in the 2 hole and he gets 3 hits. Should he stay there. I say no. But the real issue is not that David Wright would not be a good #2 hitter, but that Paul LoDuca would not be a good #7 hitter. Moving Green and Alou up weakens spots 5 and 6 in the order. Meaning you would weaken spots 5, 6 and 7 to improve the 2 hole. Also there are some advantages to having LoDuca bat second compared to Wright. LoDuca can take pitches to let Reyes steal, you don't want Wright to do that. LoDuca can shorten up and hit to the right side. Even though Wright is a good opposite field hitter you don't want to take the pull away from him. Late in games when one run might be crucial and you need to bunt, you'd be taking the bat out of Wright's hands. Also because you need 4 to 5 runs per game to win I think it's prudent to spread your best hitters as far down the lineup as possible. While Green and Alou are hitting this may work out, but if they slump, the bottom of the order would be a dead spot.

2) Mike Pelfrey
Right now he is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA. Should the keep him in the rotation or send him down to avoid destroying his confidence? I am a believer that young pitchers that are rushed lose confidence and sometimes never recover. But I think they should leave him up with the big club and hope The Jacket can figure out a way to help him. But with El Duque out and being replaced by either Park, can they afford to keep Pelfrey and lose every start he makes?

3) Aaron Heilman
He is awful right now. He gives up runs almost every time he pitches. If they keep relying on him to be the right handed setup man he is going to blow 8 to 10 games. I think right now Joe Smith should be given the 8th inning role and if Mota comes back (he's halfway through his 50 game suspension) and does well I think they should redeploy Heilman, quite possibly to the starting rotation if trouble there persists.

2007 Season Preview - Burning Questions

1) Should David Wright bat second?

If it ain't broke don't fix it. David Wright would be a better #2 hitter than Paul LoDuca but he is a much better 5th place hitter. This theory comes from the old days of baseball when 3 - 4 runs were enough to win. That is not the case anymore. Lineups have to be constructed to have more strong spots to generate more runs. Shawn Green stinks and Moises Alou is injury prone, relying on them to bat 5th and 6th is a bad idea and a good way to have Beltran and Delgado stranded on base a lot, and to assure Delgado never sees fastballs. Plus LoDuca has no value in the bottom of the order where he does provide some valuable tools in the second hole (ie patience, hitting to right). If Willie goes with Wright at second it would be a monumental mistake that would eventually need to be corrected, probably the first time Alou gets hurt. That said, I still think LoDuca will see a significant falloff in production compared to last year.


2) Is the starting pitching strong enough?

The starting pitching of Glavine, El Duque, Maine, Perez and Pelfrey is good enough under ideal conditions. If there is a major injury (el Duque?), or a decline in performance (Perez), that could mean big trouble. I think Glavine and El Duque should be solid and I expect Maine to perform within a narrow band of 11-14 wins and an ERA between 4.00 and 5.00. Oliver Perez is the wild card. His ERA can be anywhere between 3 and 6. Without a good season from him the Mets will struggle to find wins. I don't think Pelfrey is ready to be a star this year, but he can definitely contribute 10 wins.


3) Will the Mets give Milledge a shot, or trade him?

I believe the Mets will end up trading Milledge for pitching help (starting or relief) at the deadline. I also think if Green gets off to a good start Milledge will be sent down to play everyday and be showcased for a trade. The only way he remains a Met for the long term is if there is a major injury to Alou or a horrible start by Green. I think he pissed off too many people last season. Also he didn't exactly set the world on fire...remember his series in Fenway? Amazingly, the injury to Sanchez last year may have doomed him. Had they kept Nady, Milledge might have had a chance to win the job this season.

4) Can we expect any deadline deals?

The Mets are very likely to be a player at the deadline. They will get back three players during the course of the year (Mota, Pedro and Sanchez) but if there is a good starter, or a strong reliever available, you can expect the Mets to package Milledge and Heilman. Because Glavine, El Duque and Pedro are so old I would like to see them hold on to Pelfrey and Humber but I am not confident that they will.

5) Will tougher competition in the NL East this year hurt the Mets?

The Phillies should be improved because they picked up some pitching and they have a great infield. Howard, Utley and Rollins is a great trio on the level of Reyes, Wright and Delgado. The Braves should also be improved becuase they fixed their bullpen but I don't see them as a major threat.

6) What is your prediction?

I see the Mets winning fewer games than last year but still more than 90, enough to win the division but the playoffs are anybody's guess. I worry that because they are constructed as an offensive team that their pitching will not hold up as happened last year in a short series. I think the Mets are likely headed for another season like 2006, a great fun year that falls just short.